Welcome back to the Madhive Political Pulse, our content series that focuses on the key CTV insights affecting this year's elections.
We've been tracking impressions for political ad campaigns on our platform, and the data tells an interesting story about the ebbs and flows of the season. Now that we're finally past the primaries and party conventions, we've entered the main leg of the election season.
Here's how CTV political advertising is shaping up — and what to expect in the coming weeks.
According to Ad Impact, August was the highest month yet for political spending in 2024. Across the entire election season, spending is also 28% higher overall compared to the 2020 cycle.
Additionally, Ad Impact reports that Democrats have been outspending Republicans at $1.56 billion to $1.39 million. That said, Labor Day is the unofficial beginning of the heavy campaigning season, and spending is likely going to hit an upward trajectory from here on out.
CTV in particular will continue to garner more advertising budget than ever before, as candidates turn to streaming to reach key audiences.
Kamala Harris announced that her campaign will share financing with democratic candidates running for congress and senate. As Harris's campaign chair stated, "this race is about mobilizing the entire country, in races at every level."
This emphasizes the importance of local and regional races in 2024. Both parties are looking to ensure that a presidential win comes with a government that can support their initiatives.
On the advertising side, that means targeted campaigns that deliver to the specific districts that will drive the greatest impact for candidates – either because these are the boundaries where they're running, or because specific geos are strategic to clinch a win. In both cases, it means efficiently spending campaign dollars to get the greatest impact.
We've already seen this play out with some key districts rising to the top of our data, and we anticipate that deepening with greater funds going to down ballot races.
Ranking the states with the most political CTV impressions, we're able to see how this strategic spending is shaping up.
It's not surprising to see Florida at the top of the list for August, as it has one of the latest primaries of the season. While Florida is always a tricky state to predict, we don't anticipate it topping the list for impressions throughout the season, now that the primary has passed.
Texas, Montana, and Wisconsin remain strong from month to month. Montana is hugely important at the senate level, and there's a lot of focus from both parties to either keep the democratic incumbent or flip the state to red. Wisconsin is another state that went red in 2016, but blue in 2020, so all eyes are on who can secure it in 2024.
Meanwhile, changes to voting laws in Michigan – including a new early voting window – could require voter education to combat disinformation.
While national stories loom large, sharp political strategizing will continue to happen on a local level, and we’ll be tracking the top players throughout the season.
Looking at the August data, the top districts align pretty closely to the top states. A few notable callouts include a highly-publicized rematch in New York Congressional District 19 and a "toss-up race" to represent Michigan Congressional District 07.
Meanwhile, Nebraska's unique electoral system has made Congressional District 02 a strategic region for presidential candidates to hit 270 electoral votes. As a result, the district continues to be a target for CTV campaigns.
Here's a complete list of the top 20 districts with the most CTV political impressions.
The first debate between Kamala Harris and Donal Trump is slated for September 10, which could come with another bump in advertising. After the last debate, we saw a spike in presidential spending, so we'll be keeping an eye out for candidates capitalizing on the momentum of a televised showdown.
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