Welcome back to the Madhive Political Pulse, our content series that focuses on the key CTV insights affecting this year's elections.
We've been tracking impressions for political ad campaigns on our platform, and as we get closer to the big day, the data highlights the tactical maneuvering that political campaigns are employing. In particular, CTV ad trends can highlight strategic agility in swing states and highly contested districts where future reservations on linear TV are densely booked.
Here's how CTV political advertising is shaping up — and what to expect in the coming weeks.
As most analysts expected, September experienced a remarkable surge in political CTV ad impressions, increasing by a staggering 489% month over month.
Looking at impressions by day, it's clear that advertising spiked the week before the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Impressions grew incrementally in the days after, and jumped substantially again in mid September.
An early analysis of October impressions show a slight initial dip, before hitting a daily average that surpasses September — suggesting CTV will continue to increase throughout the season.
Our data shows that about a quarter of all political CTV ads in September were presidential, specifically targeting key zip codes in battleground states.
According to Madhive data, 70% of presidential CTV ads went to just three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Audience targeting has mostly been broad, targeting young voter segments (ages 18-24) and the overarching 35+ demographic.
Zooming in on Congressional Districts, presidential CTV ad dollars are mostly aligning to these states, but with a few notable outliers like Nebraska's Congressional District 02; no surprise there, since this strategic district has a unique electoral vote, and the sentiment can swing for either republicans or democrats.
While presidential money is flowing into typical battleground states, the districts that are proving the priciest for advertisers aren't always aligned.
The most expensive CPMs popped up in Iowa's Congressional District 04, while several Oregon districts – 01, 04, and 06 – are pushing the CPM limits.
The top 5 is closed out by Wisconsin's Congressional District 04.
While most political CTV ads are related to candidates, some are dedicated to specific issues. One such issue that’s driving a lot of CTV impressions is a campaign to vote no on Prop 33.
Prop 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which imposes limits on rent control ordinances in California. This would allow city council members and county supervisors to expand rent control where they think it's necessary.
While it's unclear who is funding this push to vote no on prop 33, there are clear financial implications either way and many parties may have incentive to push advertising strategies that influence the vote.
As we approach Election Day, we expect to see more issue-driven ads as advocacy groups attempt to feed information to voters right before it’s time to take action.
Ranking the states with the most political CTV impressions, there's quite a lot of overlap with presidential ad dollars.
However, overall political CTV ad spending shows how local elections and issues are driving campaign strategies. Notably, California, Florida, and Montana stand out.
Here's a complete list of the top 20 districts with the most CTV political impressions.
Given the fervor over prop 33, it's not surprising to see California districts 50 and 06 on this list; encompassing densely populated areas, they're likely to be highly impacted by rent ordinance changes. District 03 also has strong feelings about the proposition.
From here on out, advertising is going to continue to climb, and we’ll be keeping an eye on the races that rise above the rest.
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