Welcome back to the Madhive Political Pulse, our content series that focuses on the key CTV insights affecting this year's elections.
We've been tracking impressions for political ad campaigns on our platform, and the data tells an interesting story about the ebbs and flows of the season. Things have really taken off in the past month, as campaigning season began in earnest.
With the unprecedented news that Joe Biden is stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris for president, the news cycle has become more and more dense every day. Here's how CTV political advertising is shaping up — and what to expect in the coming weeks.
Bolstered by primaries and an earlier-than-ever presidential debate, political ads hit their peak for the season so far in June; impressions for political CTV ads were up 42% compared to May.
Post-debate, presidential campaign impressions in particular jumped and carried over into July. That said, July is a light month for down ballot races, so impressions will likely trend down overall.
Looking ahead, we expect August to pick back up and possibly exceed June impressions; there are more down ballot primaries wrapping up, and a switch up for presidential nominee could boost numbers before the Democratic National Convention starting on August 19.
According to our data, open market CPMs for political ads are also increasing, but not as sharply as they did in 2022, the first election cycle with modern CTV programmatic advertising.
Political CPMs increased by only 8.5% in June, compared to a 30% increase the same month in 2022. That may bode well for a more controlled incline of CPMs, but advertisers should still anticipate sharper increases as the season heats up.
If the trends parallel the general 2022 trajectory, then we can anticipate September as the beginning of a climb that culminates in the highest CPMs of the season during the first week of November.
Each month, the states that were exposed to the most CTV ad impressions tended to trend according to the primary calendar. Now that most of the primaries have ended, the top states tell a story about important battleground regions for the main event.
For example, Arizona and Pennsylvania continue to top the list of states with the most political CTV impressions. Plus, many of the known swing states continue to chart in the top 10 list, including Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
But what about states with high impressions that aren't swing states? When we analyze the congressional districts, it becomes clear that down ballot races are driving a lot of these impressions.
States provide great directional signals for how political advertising is shaping up, but ultimately the big story comes down to districts.
Most swing states are hinging on very specific regions, and unsurprisingly the districts with the most CTV impressions align precisely to the strategies we’re seeing emerge from political campaigns. Let’s dig into a few.
District 16 had the most CTV political impressions out of any district in June, due to its hotly-contested congressional race.
The district spans both the north Bronx and suburban Westchester County (a great illustration of why district lines matter when targeting political campaigns), and incumbent Jamaal Bowman surprisingly lost his bid for a second term after an ad blitz from challenger George Latimer.
The number two district for impressions also featured a very buzzworthy republican primary race between well-known incumbent Tom Cole and big spender Paul Bondar.
Many candidates are in the running to take on the incumbent in this district, David Schweikert, to secure the nomination for the republican party. The race is crowded, and the CTV impressions before the July 30 primary reflect that.
Nebraska’s unique electoral system awards an electoral vote for each district won, in addition to the overall state vote. Therefore, districts here carry individual weight for the presidential election, and this year, due to redistricting and a democratic flip in 2020, Congressional District 02 will be crucial for candidates to hit the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Not surprisingly, we're seeing a lot of ad dollars being spent in this focused geo already, and that should continue throughout the season.
While national stories loom large, sharp political strategizing will continue to happen on a local level, and we'll be tracking the top players throughout the season.
Here's a complete list of the top 20 districts with the most CTV political impressions. Think of it as a power ranking of sorts.
Now that the presidential race has shifted with Kamala Harris entering the conversation, and the final primaries of the season rolling out, we’ll be keeping a close watch on how ad spending shifts in response.
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